CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-09T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30619/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This halo is associated with the X2.2 class flare from AR13664 peaking at 2024-05-09T09:13Z. A clear EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 211 crossing towards the central meridian and towards the limb in the southwest. Post-eruptive arcades are present in SDO/AIA 193 and 131. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA 304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T09:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 9.0
Dst min. in nT: -412
Dst min. time: 2024-05-12T12:00Z
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T23:48Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): 16.5 Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45 initial CME speed: 1445.5 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2024-05-09T11:38Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50kLead Time: 34.65 hour(s)
Difference: 9.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-05-09T22:51Z
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